The BNP may well be celebrating winning the two seats it narrowly missed out on in 2004, with a small increase in its share of vote - although in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber its number of votes actually fell.
But in the East of England, there was no sign of any breakthrough. The BNP secured an unimpressive 1.7 percentage point rise in its vote, which was the equivalent of less than a third of the drop in Labour support. By far the biggest winners of the electoral backlash against the mainstream were the Greens, who increased their share of the vote by nearly twice the level achieved by the BNP, taking well over half of the share of disillusioned Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. UKIP held its own and the Conservatives reported a modest rise in their already dominant position.
Of the 4.2 million people eligible to vote in the East of England, just over 2% bothered to come out and put their cross by the BNP in an election that had a turnout of under 38%. Nick Griffin had put the average BNP vote at 9.8% in the European constituency, but his party's share of the vote was more than a third less than his prediction. Far from heralding the dawn of a new era of white supremacy, the elections demonstrated that the BNP remains a fringe party with little active support among the wider population.
And here is a fact the BNP will find hard to swallow: The mixed-race street dance act Diversity won over one million votes in Britain's Got Talent just days before the election, while the BNP won just under 944,000 votes!
At a local level, in Epping Forest, the BNP poll 10% of the total vote, which was well above the national average. But there were signs that the BNP's vote is faltering. Compared to the district council elections held last year, the BNP's proportion of the vote has diminished, particularly in Loughton Central. This should worry the BNP, although they will not say this publicly. The BNP lost both its district seats in the Loughton Central division in 2008 amid a surge in support for the Loughton Residents Association. With the LRA strengthening its voter further in 2009 at the BNP's expense, Rod Law and Peter Turpin are likely to see their political careers some to an end next May with the LRA taking their seats.
At the same time, BNP election supremo Eddy Butler was unable to push the vote up in Broadway as the Labour vote actually held up and maintained its second place ranking. Having leafletted Broadway and taken up a number of local issues there, the LRA looks set to move onto the BNP's Broadway territory and deal it a major blow next year. With the district elections likely to be held concurrently with a general election, the BNP could see their group reduced to one single councillor - Pat Richardson.
While there was a significant rise in BNP support in the Waltham Abbey and North Weald divisions - mainly due to the LibDem's failure to put up a serious fight - it is unlikely that they will have a chance to break Conservative dominance. The Waltham Abbey Honey Lane district by-election demonstrated the impossible task of winning a seat outside Debden. Despite a decline in their vote, the Conservatives still secured twice the BNP's vote and the BNP could not even achieve the share of vote they received in the 2007 by-election in the ward, when they came within a whisker of winning the seat.
In short, the BNP is facing a wipe-out in Epping Forest.
Showing posts with label european. Show all posts
Showing posts with label european. Show all posts
Monday, 8 June 2009
Saturday, 6 June 2009
Mixed results for BNP in Epping Forest
The BNP had mixed results in Epping Forest, with a notable westward shift in the party's vote that was encouraged in large part over anxiety it exploited over the proposed development of permanent Gypsy settlements.
However, there was no spectacular breakthrough and the BNP did not come close to winning a county seat in the district, despite an upturn in its vote in Waltham Abbey and North Weald where it came second. In fact, the BNP's Loughton strongholds now look distinctly vulnerable with its vote in Loughton Central down sharply over its performance in 2008, when it lost two seats it was defending in the county division.
The party's performance in the Chigwell and Loughton Broadway division, which includes its Broadway stronghold, saw a small increase in the BNP's share of the vote over 2008 district results. This must have been a disappointment to candidate Eddy Butler, who serves as the BNP's national organiser and is its lead candidate for the East of England constituency in the European Parliament elections.
Meanwhile, Sue Clapp, BNP councillor for Loughton Broadway, recorded a predictably dismal performance in Saffron Walden, where she had been exiled after being considered too much of a liability to run in Epping Forest district. Clapp trailed the Labour party in last place with 5.1% of the vote; the seat was won by the incumbent Conservative councillor.
Nevertheless, the BNP has held its level of support. But it has not achieved a major breakthrough and did not win a county seat in what is supposed to be its stronghold in Essex. The party also did not come anywhere near winning the Waltham Abbey Honey Lane district council seat in spite of previous electoral success in the ward.
Overall, the elections were characterised by a collapse in support for the Labour party and continued Conservative dominance in five of seven seats in the district; the Loughton Residents Association consolidated its strong lead in Loughton Central and the Liberal Democrats regained control of Epping and Theydon Bois.
The Conservative vote was hit by the scandal surrounding MP Eleanor Laing's expenses, which led to an average 10 percentage point drop over 2008. The Liberal Democrats also concentrated their resources into two target wards, one that they won and the other - Buckhurst Hill and Loughton South - they secured a small increase in their vote in the swing away from the Conservatives. The BNP had to share the protest vote against the mainstream parties with the Greens, UKIP, the English Democrats and the LRA. But only the Greens were able to improve their vote significantly in all seven county divisions, suggesting that the BNP does not have the monopoly on the backlash against the mainstream locally.
Epping Forest BNP Watch gives its assessment of the electoral performance of the BNP in Epping Forest.
Loughton Central was easily defended by the town's current mayor, the LRA's Chris Pond, with a staggering 55% of the vote. At the same time, former LRA councillor Mitch Cohen failed to reverse the Conservatives' continuing decline in vote share, which dipped below 20% for the first time. The Conservatives' poor performance was a surprise to many who regarded Cohen as a popular local councillor. The BNP's vote in Loughton Central also fell sharply, with its vote now at the lowest level for four years. BNP candidate Rod Law presided over a massive 40%+ decline in the party's vote share. The BNP had always regarded Loughton born and raised Rod Law as a popular local, but he fared far worse than relative newcomers such as Eddy Butler and Julian Leppert. In part this is due to Law's poor image, having a bad reputation for being aggressive and openly racist. But the LRA's ability to demonstrate that it can get things done, while the BNP merely complains from the sidelines, has helped fuel its support at the BNP's expense. The situation does not bode well for the BNP's hopes of defending its marginal Alderton and Fairmead wards - two of the four wards that form the Loughton Central county division - in the 2010 district council elections. Based on the county results and the likelihood that the district elections will be held concurrently with a general election, the odds are stacked against the BNP and we predict it will lose these wards.
The BNP managed to hold up its vote share in the Chigwell and Loughton Broadway ward, but one notable surprise was an overall swing from Conservative to Labour when compared to the combined 2008 district council ward results for the division. It is likely that voters are generally more positive about the Conservatives at a district level than at a county level, although the controversy caused by the redevelopment of the Broadway shopping centre may have had a negative impact on the Conservative vote in the Loughton Broadway part of the division.
Labour came an unexpected second in the ward, with the BNP edging just ahead of the Liberal Democrats to secure third place, up from fourth in 2005. Labour managed to go from fourth place in 2008 to second, thereby bucking the county and national trend. Nevertheless, the BNP improved its position from 2008, with its share of the vote up by 1.7 percentage points, a 16% increase in vote share. While Butler is not free of controversy, as we have noted before he is a highly astute politician and this is why he is able to bolster the BNP vote while Rod Law sheds votes.
As we predicted, the BNP came second place in Waltham Abbey as the Liberal Democrat vote plummeted. With group leader Pat Richardson put forward as their candidate, the BNP has significantly strengthened its position in Waltham Abbey, which could be a secondary or alternative power base for the party outside its three Debden wards in Loughton: Fairmead, Alderton and Broadway. With the party in retreat in Debden, Waltham Abbey represents its best chance of shoring up its position in the district council.
However, while it has improved its position over the county division, the by-election in the Waltham Abbey Honey Lane district council ward showed no major progress for the party. We had been expecting a tighter race, but the Conservatives achieved twice the vote the BNP managed, despite the extremist party's second place. The Liberal Democrats ran a lacklustre campaign and lost votes, which the BNP capitalised on. Yet, the BNP was unable to repeat the performance of the 2007 by-election, when it came a very close second when Conservative voters stayed at home. It also only secured a four percentage point increase in its vote over 2008 results for the district wards in the division. Having come second, the BNP still remains a threat in Waltham Abbey and the results suggest it may have more support in the Waltham Abbey Paternoster ward
The BNP did not make any headway in Buckhurst Hill and Loughton South division or the Epping and Theydon Bois divisions, where the Liberal Democrats ran a strong campaign. In the former, the BNP have little presence with the vote at little more than 5%, while in the latter the BNP vote share fell. In Ongar and Rural division, Councillor Peter Turpin did poorly and worse than we expected with 8.5% of the vote. However, North Weald was a breakthrough for the BNP in the district, with former London mayoral candidate coming second on the back of public anger over travellers' sites that the BNP felt able to capitalise on. Consequently, the losses and stagnation in some divisions was outweighed by gains in others. Overall, the BNP held its own with 10% of the vote district-wide.
European elections
If repeated across the East of England at the European elections, the BNP has an outside chance of winning a seat in the East of England. The BNP itself has predicted that it will not make the threshold for a seat in the Euro constituency, although its own number-crunching suggests up to four seats nationwide: East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside and North West England. But despite a good showing in urban areas of Essex and Hertfordshire, where its vote varied between 5-15%, the rural counties of Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire are likely to see the protest vote swing to the Greens and UKIP.
The Green party fared exceptionally well in these counties where it stood. While the BNP won just one seat in the entire region in Hertfordshire, the Greens managed to notch up 11 seats and UKIP won two seats, despite being primarily focused on Europe rather than local issues. But it is unclear whether the Greens did enough to win a seat and head of a challenge from the BNP. No doubt people voted differently in the local and European elections and it is impossible to make any educated guess in a close-fought campaign by minor parties for the seventh seat in the East of England. We will know for certain when the results are announced tomorrow.
However, there was no spectacular breakthrough and the BNP did not come close to winning a county seat in the district, despite an upturn in its vote in Waltham Abbey and North Weald where it came second. In fact, the BNP's Loughton strongholds now look distinctly vulnerable with its vote in Loughton Central down sharply over its performance in 2008, when it lost two seats it was defending in the county division.
The party's performance in the Chigwell and Loughton Broadway division, which includes its Broadway stronghold, saw a small increase in the BNP's share of the vote over 2008 district results. This must have been a disappointment to candidate Eddy Butler, who serves as the BNP's national organiser and is its lead candidate for the East of England constituency in the European Parliament elections.
Meanwhile, Sue Clapp, BNP councillor for Loughton Broadway, recorded a predictably dismal performance in Saffron Walden, where she had been exiled after being considered too much of a liability to run in Epping Forest district. Clapp trailed the Labour party in last place with 5.1% of the vote; the seat was won by the incumbent Conservative councillor.
Nevertheless, the BNP has held its level of support. But it has not achieved a major breakthrough and did not win a county seat in what is supposed to be its stronghold in Essex. The party also did not come anywhere near winning the Waltham Abbey Honey Lane district council seat in spite of previous electoral success in the ward.
Overall, the elections were characterised by a collapse in support for the Labour party and continued Conservative dominance in five of seven seats in the district; the Loughton Residents Association consolidated its strong lead in Loughton Central and the Liberal Democrats regained control of Epping and Theydon Bois.
The Conservative vote was hit by the scandal surrounding MP Eleanor Laing's expenses, which led to an average 10 percentage point drop over 2008. The Liberal Democrats also concentrated their resources into two target wards, one that they won and the other - Buckhurst Hill and Loughton South - they secured a small increase in their vote in the swing away from the Conservatives. The BNP had to share the protest vote against the mainstream parties with the Greens, UKIP, the English Democrats and the LRA. But only the Greens were able to improve their vote significantly in all seven county divisions, suggesting that the BNP does not have the monopoly on the backlash against the mainstream locally.
Epping Forest BNP Watch gives its assessment of the electoral performance of the BNP in Epping Forest.
Loughton Central was easily defended by the town's current mayor, the LRA's Chris Pond, with a staggering 55% of the vote. At the same time, former LRA councillor Mitch Cohen failed to reverse the Conservatives' continuing decline in vote share, which dipped below 20% for the first time. The Conservatives' poor performance was a surprise to many who regarded Cohen as a popular local councillor. The BNP's vote in Loughton Central also fell sharply, with its vote now at the lowest level for four years. BNP candidate Rod Law presided over a massive 40%+ decline in the party's vote share. The BNP had always regarded Loughton born and raised Rod Law as a popular local, but he fared far worse than relative newcomers such as Eddy Butler and Julian Leppert. In part this is due to Law's poor image, having a bad reputation for being aggressive and openly racist. But the LRA's ability to demonstrate that it can get things done, while the BNP merely complains from the sidelines, has helped fuel its support at the BNP's expense. The situation does not bode well for the BNP's hopes of defending its marginal Alderton and Fairmead wards - two of the four wards that form the Loughton Central county division - in the 2010 district council elections. Based on the county results and the likelihood that the district elections will be held concurrently with a general election, the odds are stacked against the BNP and we predict it will lose these wards.
The BNP managed to hold up its vote share in the Chigwell and Loughton Broadway ward, but one notable surprise was an overall swing from Conservative to Labour when compared to the combined 2008 district council ward results for the division. It is likely that voters are generally more positive about the Conservatives at a district level than at a county level, although the controversy caused by the redevelopment of the Broadway shopping centre may have had a negative impact on the Conservative vote in the Loughton Broadway part of the division.
Labour came an unexpected second in the ward, with the BNP edging just ahead of the Liberal Democrats to secure third place, up from fourth in 2005. Labour managed to go from fourth place in 2008 to second, thereby bucking the county and national trend. Nevertheless, the BNP improved its position from 2008, with its share of the vote up by 1.7 percentage points, a 16% increase in vote share. While Butler is not free of controversy, as we have noted before he is a highly astute politician and this is why he is able to bolster the BNP vote while Rod Law sheds votes.As we predicted, the BNP came second place in Waltham Abbey as the Liberal Democrat vote plummeted. With group leader Pat Richardson put forward as their candidate, the BNP has significantly strengthened its position in Waltham Abbey, which could be a secondary or alternative power base for the party outside its three Debden wards in Loughton: Fairmead, Alderton and Broadway. With the party in retreat in Debden, Waltham Abbey represents its best chance of shoring up its position in the district council.
However, while it has improved its position over the county division, the by-election in the Waltham Abbey Honey Lane district council ward showed no major progress for the party. We had been expecting a tighter race, but the Conservatives achieved twice the vote the BNP managed, despite the extremist party's second place. The Liberal Democrats ran a lacklustre campaign and lost votes, which the BNP capitalised on. Yet, the BNP was unable to repeat the performance of the 2007 by-election, when it came a very close second when Conservative voters stayed at home. It also only secured a four percentage point increase in its vote over 2008 results for the district wards in the division. Having come second, the BNP still remains a threat in Waltham Abbey and the results suggest it may have more support in the Waltham Abbey Paternoster wardThe BNP did not make any headway in Buckhurst Hill and Loughton South division or the Epping and Theydon Bois divisions, where the Liberal Democrats ran a strong campaign. In the former, the BNP have little presence with the vote at little more than 5%, while in the latter the BNP vote share fell. In Ongar and Rural division, Councillor Peter Turpin did poorly and worse than we expected with 8.5% of the vote. However, North Weald was a breakthrough for the BNP in the district, with former London mayoral candidate coming second on the back of public anger over travellers' sites that the BNP felt able to capitalise on. Consequently, the losses and stagnation in some divisions was outweighed by gains in others. Overall, the BNP held its own with 10% of the vote district-wide.
European elections
If repeated across the East of England at the European elections, the BNP has an outside chance of winning a seat in the East of England. The BNP itself has predicted that it will not make the threshold for a seat in the Euro constituency, although its own number-crunching suggests up to four seats nationwide: East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside and North West England. But despite a good showing in urban areas of Essex and Hertfordshire, where its vote varied between 5-15%, the rural counties of Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire are likely to see the protest vote swing to the Greens and UKIP.
The Green party fared exceptionally well in these counties where it stood. While the BNP won just one seat in the entire region in Hertfordshire, the Greens managed to notch up 11 seats and UKIP won two seats, despite being primarily focused on Europe rather than local issues. But it is unclear whether the Greens did enough to win a seat and head of a challenge from the BNP. No doubt people voted differently in the local and European elections and it is impossible to make any educated guess in a close-fought campaign by minor parties for the seventh seat in the East of England. We will know for certain when the results are announced tomorrow.
Wednesday, 3 June 2009
BNP fundraiser is criminal with links to Loyalist killer
From Daily Record
The BNP's top fundraiser is today exposed as a militant anti-abortion campaigner with links to a Loyalist killer and a string of criminal convictions.
Jim Dowson is a former Orangeman who featured on a tape of flute band music supporting murderer Michael Stone.
He was also the face of a hardline pro-life organisation who posted names and addresses of pro-choice MSPs and a family planning group boss on the internet.
Dowson, of Cumbernauld, near Glasgow, is now a key aide to BNP leader Nick Griffin.
Griffin appointed Dowson as the party's money man and campaign organiser for their attempt to win seats in tomorrow's European Parliament election.
Dowson's past activities fly in the face of BNP attempts to paint the group in a more moderate light and be seen as a serious political party.
In a recent blog, Griffin praised Dowson for his help in getting their party political broadcast aired on Channel Five.
Griffin wrote: "This was just one of a huge number of extras that Jim Dowson threw in on top of all his other super-human efforts."
But we can reveal Dowson, 44, as a "rent-a-cause" extremist who was kicked out of the Orange Order.
Dowson formed Precious Life Scotland, later UK LifeLeague, in 1999 after meetings with Ireland's notorious Youth Defence, who had previously stormed buildings in Dublin in their crusade against a woman's right to choose.
He said he joined the antiabortion movement after being approached in the street by activists during a holiday in Belfast and felt disgusted by the aborted foetus images in their leaflets.
Dowson portrayed himself as a staunch Christian and even claimed to be preacher in his own church.
But Dowson has no shame over his sectarian views and violent past.
Possession
He has described himself as a "dyed-in-the-wool Protestant" and said "all options are open" in the fight against abortion.
He admitted: "I have a very chequered past."
Dowson has a list of criminal convictions including breach of the peace in 1986, possession of a weapon and breach of the peace in 1991 and criminal damage in 1992. He was forced out of his local Orange Lodge and took part in demonstrations against fellow Orangemen, attacking them as "atheists and boozers" after he was "born again".
Dowson denied claims he constantly referred to Catholics as "Fenian scum", but did admit to producing flute band tapes which glorified the worst Loyalist atrocities.
The tape of Cumbernauld's Abronhill flute band included a tribute to Michael Stone who murdered three Catholics at a funeral in 1988.
Neighbours in Cumbernauld told how Dowson would fly sectarian flags from the windows of his house.
In 1998, he protested against Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble's role in the Good Friday peace agreement.
But it was his role in the militant pro-life movement which gained him public exposure. Ironically, given his party's denial of the Nazis' hatred of Jews, Dowson held up graphic photographs of an aborted baby with the words "Hitler's Holocaust - Scotland's Holocaust Abortion" during Precious Life's first protest in Edinburgh.
In an interview, he repeated the comparison, saying: "It's like Hitler. He used fancy, flowery language to sanitise what went on in the death camps, didn't he?"
Divorce
Dowson eventually lost his job as sales manager for a catering firm over his continued publicity.
His organisation came under fire for bombarding children as young as 11 with graphic abortion images.
He and wife Anne were also behind Parent Truth, an group threatened with legal action over a planned billboard campaign carrying the phrase "The morning after pill can kill", alongside an image of a girl on a life support machine.
Brown leads fascist fight
Gordon Brown yesterday led a host of celebrities in condemning the BNP.
The PM and stars including actress Thandie Newton and Little Britain's Matt Lucas put their names to an open letter hitting out at the "racist and fascist"party.
The letter said:"We love Britain precisely because of its tolerance and diversity. "The British National Party and their allies are a threat to everything that makes us proud of this country we love.
"The BNP are working hard to conceal their extremism because they know British people reject the politics of racism and hatred."
Foreign Secretary David Miliband yesterday warned that Britain faces a "day of shame" if the BNP are elected to the European Parliament.
Miliband, whose Jewish grandparents were forced to flee the Nazis, said: "It would be a day of enormous shame if the country that led the fight against the Nazism in the 1940s ends up with the political descendants of fascism representing Britain."
The BNP stand no real chance of winning a Scottish seat in the European election tomorrow.
But nearly 20,000 Scots voted for the BNP at the last Euro poll in 2004 and the fear is they will increase that total this time.
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
BNP lead candidate: drinking driving without insurance or MoT
A leading candidate for the British National Party in the forthcoming European elections has been charged with failing to provide a specimen and using a vehicle with no insurance or MoT test certificate, Scotland Yard said.Robert Bailey, 43, of Romford, east London, has been bailed to appear before Havering magistrates on Friday after being charged with failing to provide a specimen and using a vehicle with no insurance and no test certificate, Scotland Yard said.
A spokeswoman said Bailey, who is leader of the BNP group on Barking and Dagenham Council and is top of the BNP list for London in the Euro elections, was stopped by police at 11.20pm last Thursday in London Road, Romford. A spokesman for the BNP indicated that Bailey would plead not guilty to both charges.
Loughton churches unite against BNP
Loughton Churches Together has leafleted the town in an effort to beat back the BNP.
In a carefully worded letter to local residents, the multi-denominational group that includes all Christian churches encouraged people to vote in the county council and European elections, but warned against the consequences of supporting racist parties.
It said: "We understand that many feel disillusioned with politics with all the current publicity. However, not voting leaves a potentiall dangerous void. This highlights the need for us to vote with care and consideration."
While the group said it did not support any particular party, it gave a strong indication that voters should shun the BNP. The leaflet stated: "We are united in our belief in equality and stand against all racial prejudice longing for messages that unite everone in our community."
It also published the results of the previous county council and European elections. In Epping Forest district, the BNP secured 7.5% of the vote, coming fifth in the poll. Although the BNP regards the district as a stronghold, if the level had been achieved across the European constituency it still would have been well short of a victory. However, it was still way above the 4.3% the party secured regionally.
The Churches Together is a wake-up call for non-voters. If you fail to vote, you could end up being represented by a neo-Nazi party that will embarrass the country at an international level.
In a carefully worded letter to local residents, the multi-denominational group that includes all Christian churches encouraged people to vote in the county council and European elections, but warned against the consequences of supporting racist parties.
It said: "We understand that many feel disillusioned with politics with all the current publicity. However, not voting leaves a potentiall dangerous void. This highlights the need for us to vote with care and consideration."
While the group said it did not support any particular party, it gave a strong indication that voters should shun the BNP. The leaflet stated: "We are united in our belief in equality and stand against all racial prejudice longing for messages that unite everone in our community."
It also published the results of the previous county council and European elections. In Epping Forest district, the BNP secured 7.5% of the vote, coming fifth in the poll. Although the BNP regards the district as a stronghold, if the level had been achieved across the European constituency it still would have been well short of a victory. However, it was still way above the 4.3% the party secured regionally.
The Churches Together is a wake-up call for non-voters. If you fail to vote, you could end up being represented by a neo-Nazi party that will embarrass the country at an international level.
Sunday, 24 May 2009
Archbishops urge public not to vote BNP
From The Independent
The archbishops of Canterbury and York today urge the public not to allow a furore over MPs' expenses to drive them towards the BNP at the forthcoming European elections.
In a joint statement for the Church of England House of Bishops, Dr Rowan Williams and Dr John Sentamu stress they understand the atmosphere of anger and disillusionment following the recent revelations. But they said it would be "tragic" if people chose not to vote, or to register a protest vote, at the European parliamentary and local elections on 4 June.
The archbishops of Canterbury and York today urge the public not to allow a furore over MPs' expenses to drive them towards the BNP at the forthcoming European elections.
In a joint statement for the Church of England House of Bishops, Dr Rowan Williams and Dr John Sentamu stress they understand the atmosphere of anger and disillusionment following the recent revelations. But they said it would be "tragic" if people chose not to vote, or to register a protest vote, at the European parliamentary and local elections on 4 June.
Their statement says: "This is not a moment for voting in favour of any political party whose core ideology is about sowing division in our communities and hostility on grounds of race, creed or colour...
"The temptation to stay away or register a protest vote in order to send a negative signal to the parties represented at Westminster will be strong," they continue. "In our view, however, it would be tragic if the understandable sense of anger and disillusionment with some MPs over recent revelations led voters to shun the ballot box."
Dr Williams and Dr Sentamu urge "great vigilance" when deciding whom to vote for in the elections. "Those whom we elect to local councils and the European Parliament will represent us and our collective interests for many years to come. It is crucial to elect those who wish to uphold the democratic values and who wish to work for the common good in a spirit of public service."
The Seventh Seat and the BNP in Eastern England
Q: What would it take for the BNP to win a seat in Eastern England?
A: An average of more than 3,200 votes per constituency in the entire region, which is the equivalent of a 90% increase on the vote it secured in its Epping Forest stronghold in 2005. The BNP threat is therefore minimal.
Q: Which party has the best chance of denying the BNP a seat?
A: If UKIP can secure the same vote as in 2004, it will deny the BNP a seat by taking the region's seventh seat in the European Parliament. But, based on current trends, the Liberal Democrats are best placed. They only need an increase of 300 votes per constituency to win a second seat, thereby winning the seventh seat from UKIP. Yet the Greens also have a chance of winning a seat, if they can double their vote.
The European Parliament elections in the UK are being fought on a proportional representation electoral system called the d'Hondt method. In this system, parties put forward a list of candidates and whichever list has the highest number of votes gets the next seat allocated. The process is repeated until all seats have been allocated.
In the 2004 European Parliament election in Eastern England, the Conservatives won three seats (down one), the UK Independence Party came second with two seats (up one) and Labour and the Liberal Democrats secured one seat each (Labour lost a seat). In 2009, the region will again vote for seven seats in the European Parliament.
For the Conservatives to increase their number of seats to four, they will need an extra 150,000 votes - or 3,100-3,300 votes per constituency - and bring their level of support to at least 40%. It would appear that they have difficult task, particularly as current opinion polls for the EP elections put them on around 30%. However, all it would take is a return to the vote they achieved in 1999 to win the seventh seat, with the potential for defections from UKIP.
The scenario depends on turnout and voting trends. If the turnout is lower than the 36.5% achieved in 2004, it will be easier for minor parties to win the seventh seat. A drop in turnout to 30% would still mean the BNP needs to double its number of votes over 2004, while the Liberal Democrats would only need to return the same number of votes to win a second seat and the Conservatives would need a modest upturn to win the region's seventh seat.
Conversely, a higher turnout could be achieved if previous non-voters rally behind a minor party with a popular mandate. This seemed to be the case in 2004, when a higher turnout was principally due to previous non-voters casting their vote for UKIP. The BNP will be hoping to make the same kind of breakthrough in 2009. In Epping Forest, the BNP has won seats by encouraging a previously apathetic portion of the electorate to come out and vote for them, thereby raising turnout. However, this appears to be a fairly unique situation, as in many other parts of the country the BNP has won seats as a result of very low turnouts.
A: An average of more than 3,200 votes per constituency in the entire region, which is the equivalent of a 90% increase on the vote it secured in its Epping Forest stronghold in 2005. The BNP threat is therefore minimal.
Q: Which party has the best chance of denying the BNP a seat?
A: If UKIP can secure the same vote as in 2004, it will deny the BNP a seat by taking the region's seventh seat in the European Parliament. But, based on current trends, the Liberal Democrats are best placed. They only need an increase of 300 votes per constituency to win a second seat, thereby winning the seventh seat from UKIP. Yet the Greens also have a chance of winning a seat, if they can double their vote.
The European Parliament elections in the UK are being fought on a proportional representation electoral system called the d'Hondt method. In this system, parties put forward a list of candidates and whichever list has the highest number of votes gets the next seat allocated. The process is repeated until all seats have been allocated.
In the 2004 European Parliament election in Eastern England, the Conservatives won three seats (down one), the UK Independence Party came second with two seats (up one) and Labour and the Liberal Democrats secured one seat each (Labour lost a seat). In 2009, the region will again vote for seven seats in the European Parliament.
In order to win the final, seventh seat, in Eastern England a party will have to win at least 9% of the vote - or 150,000 votes based on the 2004 turnout - if not more. To secure a second seat, a party will have to get around 20%. The figures are only approximate due to the nature in which the seats are distributed. It is conceivable that a party could win a seat with just 8% of the vote.
UKIP narrowly won the seventh seat in 2004, denying Labour its second seat in the region. But there are doubts it can repeat this performance in 2009. The party has not been immune from accusations of corruption, with Tom Wise - who was elected as a UKIP MEP for Eastern England but later expelled from the party over allegations concerning his expenses claims - recently charged with false accounting and money laundering. UKIP will be doing very well if it repeats its 2004 performance, but even based on current opinion polls it is unlikely to repeat the 19.6% vote it previously achieved in the region. This throws open the door to other parties.
Given that the BNP secured just 4.3% of the vote in Eastern England in 2004, it faces an uphill battle to win the seventh seat from UKIP. Based on the 2004 turnout, the BNP would have to win an extra 1,800-2,000 votes per constituency in Eastern England in order to win one seat and a 130% increase in its vote overall - in 2004, it increased its vote four-fold, but from a very low base. In contrast, the Greens would have to win another 1,300-1,500 votes per constituency. The Liberal Democrats would need just 200-300 votes per constituency to win the final distributed seat, increasing their number of MEPs in the region to two.For the Conservatives to increase their number of seats to four, they will need an extra 150,000 votes - or 3,100-3,300 votes per constituency - and bring their level of support to at least 40%. It would appear that they have difficult task, particularly as current opinion polls for the EP elections put them on around 30%. However, all it would take is a return to the vote they achieved in 1999 to win the seventh seat, with the potential for defections from UKIP.
The scenario depends on turnout and voting trends. If the turnout is lower than the 36.5% achieved in 2004, it will be easier for minor parties to win the seventh seat. A drop in turnout to 30% would still mean the BNP needs to double its number of votes over 2004, while the Liberal Democrats would only need to return the same number of votes to win a second seat and the Conservatives would need a modest upturn to win the region's seventh seat.
Conversely, a higher turnout could be achieved if previous non-voters rally behind a minor party with a popular mandate. This seemed to be the case in 2004, when a higher turnout was principally due to previous non-voters casting their vote for UKIP. The BNP will be hoping to make the same kind of breakthrough in 2009. In Epping Forest, the BNP has won seats by encouraging a previously apathetic portion of the electorate to come out and vote for them, thereby raising turnout. However, this appears to be a fairly unique situation, as in many other parts of the country the BNP has won seats as a result of very low turnouts.
Few are under the illusion that the Labour vote will hold up, amid the expenses fiasco and the economic recession. But it would require the Labour vote to fall by 100,000 across the region - or 2,000-2,500 votes per constituency if the turnout remains the same - for the party to lose its seat. If 70% of these votes went to the BNP, the extremists would secure the seat, although it is certain they will pick up votes from across the political spectrum - particularly former UKIP and Conservative supporters - as well as previously apathetic non-voters.
Polling trends show that Labour voters are, on the whole, more likely to vote Liberal Democrat and Green rather than BNP. The Greens have tended to attract support from Labour voters, although they claim that most of their surge in support has come from those who previously voted for the Liberal Democrats. A switch from Liberal Democrat to Greens makes the outcome much harder to predict, although there is also a likelihood of previously Conservative and Labour voters switching to the Liberal Democrats that could offset any drift in the Greens' favour. The key risk factor for the Liberal Democrats is their enthusiasm for the European Union, which goes against the grain of generally Eurosceptic public opinion.
Muddying the waters further is the issue of where high profile Independent candidate Martin Bell's votes will go in 2009. Bell stood against Conservative MPs in the past, famously winning against Neil Hamilton in 1997 and coming second behind Eric Pickles in 2001. Although he has won support across a broad spectrum of voters, the bulk of his support has come from the centre and the left. The main party to benefit from Bell's decision not to contest this years elections appears to be the Liberal Democrats, although the Conservatives could also benefit. Bell himself has thrown his support behind the Greens and in the unlikely scenario that four out of five of his supporters follow him, the party will win the seventh seat.
Other things being equal, the best way to ensure that the BNP has no hope of winning a seat in Eastern England is to vote Liberal Democrat, which could pick up a second seat. While there is a lot of uncertainty over the direction of voting patterns, the threat from the BNP is so remote that voters should feel comfortable voting with their consciences rather than tactically to keep the extremists out.
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